Roger Goodell said on NBC the other night that if the NFL added a team in Los Angeles, he’d prefer it be an expansion team, and if that happened he’d prefer to add two teams rather than one.
He backed off that statement in his Super Bowl media appearance on Friday, but that still leaves open the question: What city would have the 34th team?
The NFL map of teams presently looks like this, with the Northeast, Southeast and Midwest pretty well saturated:
There are some vast open area – the Dakotas, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, that area up there.
But there just aren’t the population centers in the Northwest outside of Seattle and Portland, so it’s hard to see Bismarck or Cheyenne joining (though Kaycee, Wyoming, the home of Chris LeDoux, should be considered … Won’t you paint me back home in Wyoming…)
Portland would be logical, except it lies very close to Seattle, so territorial issues might arise. Same with two other logical choices: San Antonio and Toronto, both of which would be great homes to the NFL. But Jerry Jones is not likely to give up the San Antonio area, nor are the Buffalo Bills likely going to give up Toronto.
The league has talked about international expansion, which brings London into play – even though Dublin, Cork, Galway or Limerick would be a better place, for all the obvious reasons. In Canada, Montreal would be a nice choice, but it just doesn’t seem likely given most NFL players do not speak French.
All told, there are 24 states that lack an NFL team, including Hawaii and Alaska. Hawaii would be an intriguing proposition for journalists, but teams would balk at the length of that trip. Alaska would be great, but also has distance issues.
Many states can be immediately discarded. Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut … Same with Arkansas, New Mexico, Delaware and Iowa.
The most populated states without teams are Virginia, South Carolina and Alabama. But the Redskins have always been Virginia’s team. Norfolk and the Hampton Roads area is well populated, but it just doesn’t seem (to paraphrase Elaine Benes) “NFL worthy.” Columbia, S.C., could have a team, but the stars and bars still flies in a good part of that state. Birmingham is a way cool city, a very underrated city. And it is a football haven, so it’s a possibility – even if it has to share a fan base with Alabama and Auburn.
The Sport Journal did a pretty detailed study of the most likely places for NFL teams by using mathematical formulas and algorithms and other complicated stuff. Areas like New York and Washington and Los Angeles were rated a perfect 1.0 with all factors considered. Cleveland is rated. 99, Cincinnati .71.
Cities closest to 1.0 that do not have a team: San Antonio (.56), Salt Lake City (.51), Sacramento (.43) and Columbus (.39). Of those, the most likely to get a team is Salt Lake City. (Sacramento is too close to Oakland, Columbus between Cleveland and Cincinnati.) But Oklahoma City, fueled by Rick Horrow’s genius in getting the city to build an arena for a potential NBA team, has proven it can support basketball. It might be able to support the NFL as well.
There is one major city that lacks a professional sports franchise that probably deserves one: Las Vegas.
Leagues are reluctant to expand to Vegas due to the state’s gambling laws, but the population of the Vegas area dwarfs that of Salt Lake City (1.95 million to 1.24 million).
Other populations of areas that lack an NFL team:
Birmingham – 1,120,000
Honolulu – 953,000
Los Angeles – 12,828,000
Louisville – 1,950,000
Oklahoma City – 1,252,000
Portland – 2,224,000
Richmond, Va. – 1,250,000
Sacramento – 2,142,000
Salt Lake City – 1,124,000
Virginia Beach – 1,671,000
For argument sake, Iowa City is 152,000, Bismarck is 108,000, Albany is 870,000 and Bend, Or., 157,000.
What does all this mean? Well it means I have no idea where the 34th team would be (assuming the 33rd is indeed Los Angeles).
The first criteria, of course, will be the area most willing to pay the NFL an exorbitant expansion fee – perhaps one approaching $1 billion. Any city that would fall over itself to do that would be welcome, maybe even Kaycee, Wyoming.
The second criteria would be to ask Maria Menounos where she would prefer. Menounos is an NFL reporter by virtue of her work at Media Days, of course. Sadly, Menounos is busy at Super Bowl parties, so she can’t be reached. So it’s on to really trying to think it through logically.
Since many teams will prostrate themselves for the NFL, it comes down to a guess. The most logical choice would seem to be Portland, Toronto or San Antonio. But all have territorial issues. The most bold choice would be Las Vegas. The more interesting ones would be Salt Lake City, Birmingham or Honolulu.
My guess: Salt Lake City, with Birmingham a close second.
